中国应“关门打狗”治热钱

2008年06月30日08:33 [我来说两句(59)] [字号：大 中 小]

来源：大洋网-信息时报 作者：林燕辉　凌慧珊 李鹤鸣 陈永华

　　□专题采写 时报记者 林燕辉　凌慧珊 李鹤鸣 陈永华

　　“应该用‘关门打狗’内紧外松的办法治热钱。”昨日，在“2008影响中国?A股投资国际论坛”上，北京大学金融金衍生品研究院特邀研究员谭雅玲再次语出惊人，她曾以“人民币一次性贬值”言论引起香港股市暴跌3天。

　　事实上，语出惊人并非只有谭雅玲。“中国已经错过放开成品油价格的最佳时机”、“成品油价格确定市场化机制迫不及待，老百姓具备相应承受能力 ”、“中国经济2015年之前不会出现大崩溃”……魏加宁、许小年、夏业良、高辉清等著名经济学家在论坛上展开了一场激烈的争辩。

　　油价放开

　　虽错过最佳时机 今天总比明天好

　　上周五，国际原油价格再创历史新高，收盘价首次突破每桶140美元关口。事实上，除了供不应求以及美联储宽松货币政策以外，国际投机炒作因素导致油价高企被普遍认同。

　　中欧国际工商学院教授许小年说，一年以前金融机构在世界原油远期市场上的仓位仅仅占总量的30%，今天金融机构的持仓已经占到70%，他们不是真正的原油使用单位，他们投资原油期货市场完全是为了获得金融投资回报。

　　“中国错过了理顺资源价格，也错过了有力控制通货膨胀的最佳有利时机。”国务院发展研究中心宏观经济研究员魏加宁此言一出，得到了在场经济学家们的赞同。

　　许小年说，最近国内把原油价格提高上去了，但问题要害不在于提不提成品油价格，而在于成品油价格的市场化机制。在政府管制下，市场信号没有办法传到企业那里。

　　放开油价后，老百姓是否具有承受油价上涨的能力？

　　许小年认为，从政策制定者角度来看，他应该考虑最低收入阶层的承受能力，而不是全社会的承受能力，就成品油价来说，它的提价实际上是和最低收入阶层是无关的，因为最低收入阶层不会买车，最低收入阶层也很少去打车。“所以我觉得，中高收入阶层是有这个承受能力的。”

　　“高盛预测今年国际原油期货价是150美元，明年是200美元。什么时候放开油价最合适呢？我认为，这个时机可以理解为‘今天永远比明天强’，尽管今天做已经不如昨天，可还是比明天要强嘛。”许小年的话旋即博得一阵掌声。

　　CPI走势

　　警惕工资上涨引发恶性通胀

　　对于老百姓普遍关注的物价高企问题，许小年提出了一个独特的观点。他认为，中国目前的通胀不是单纯的输入型通胀，而是“出口转内销的通胀”。他 解释，中国对能源、粮食的供需不平衡关系，点燃了国际油价、粮食价格上涨的导火线，美联储宽松货币政策以及国际炒家炒作进一步促使价格飙升，价格上涨于是 再度传导到国内。

　　“现在最危险的事情不是价格在上升，而是我们正在形成一个稳定的社会通胀预期。一旦这种通胀预期形成，就有可能引发在经济学中我们称为‘恶性通 胀成本和价格之间的螺旋上升’，这是最可怕的。”许小年举例，通胀预期最直接的反应是：工人会要求增加工资，供货商会要求提价，而当工资和价格上升的时 候，企业只好提高自己产品价格来转移成本上升，而当企业一旦提价，就强化社会下一步的通胀预期，为下一轮工资和成本上升埋下伏笔，如此循环，很快会使通货 膨胀失去控制。

　　许小年说，国内现在处于一个比较关键的时刻，要尽快出台紧缩性政策，而不是去管理具体的价格。他认为紧缩银根，加息是最好的办法，而不是通过数量化行政手段，因为信贷额度会产生很多的扭曲。

　　对于CPI走势，国家信息中心专家委员会委员、经济预测部发展战略处处长高辉清则比较乐观。他认为，今年全年CPI可以控制在6％左右。

　　热钱控制

　　适当时候收紧管制关口

　　与越南一样，中国目前同样面临热钱的风险。高辉清说，有一个测算，中国的热钱在5000亿美元到1.8万亿美元的规模。1997年亚洲金融危机 时所有亚洲国家的热钱总和为6000亿美元。换句话说，中国已经比亚洲危机所有热钱加起来还要多，但是中国经济总量是他们的1/4，问题很严重。

　　谭雅玲表示，进入中国来投机的热钱是非常多的，否则人民币升值和股票走势应该是一致的。但现在人民币升值比原来还要快，股票却跌回去了。

　　“我们应该警惕热钱在中国坐庄。在当前国内外金融形势下，中国需要自我冷静、内紧外松地来应对热钱。”她说。

　　“面对热钱我们应该怎么办？不能打草惊蛇，先做好监控，稳住热钱，然后在适当的时候收紧管制关口。泰国就是一个最好的例证，泰国在2006年 12月政权变动后，进行金融管制，今年3月份亚洲市场汇率、股票波动最小的国家就是泰国。我们现在不能过多评论热钱有多少，制造市场恐慌，否则会让热钱改 变策略，我们应该从国家利益的角度要有一个全面、综合、警惕考量。”　　

白岩松为逃跑记者叫屈 呼吁大众学会宽容

[提要] 　 汶川地震已经过去一个半月的时间，在这场前所未有的灾难来临时，媒体人在第一时间迅速履行职责，为大众报道第一现场。而对于某些前线记者在灾区坍塌的瓦砾 上采访刚刚获救群众时，抛出未经斟酌的问题，也成为不少网友质疑和谴责的对象。央视主持白岩松，近日在出席活动时，表达了自己鲜明的看法和观点……[我来说两句]

　　汶川地震已经过去一个半月的时间，在这场前所未有的灾难来临时，媒体人在第一时间迅速履行职责，为大众报道第一现场。在这场抗震救灾的报道中， 央视的众多主持人迅速响应、积极参与、动情报道打动了不少群众的心，尤其是参与这次直播报道的主持人赵普在直播间的潸然泪下，更让这些镜头前的主持人顿时 成为老百姓心中可爱的人。

视频：白岩松为年轻记者叫屈 直播时曾嚎啕痛哭

　　然而，在这些可爱的人中间，参与央视灾情报道的前线记者中，出现了让人甚为愤慨的不负责记者，大众对此人行为口诛笔伐的同时，亦对一向在心中留 下严谨专业印象的央视产生新的看法和质疑。而对于某些前线记者在灾区坍塌的瓦砾上采访刚刚获救群众时，抛出未经斟酌的问题，也成为不少网友质疑和谴责的对 象。

　　面对上述的现象，从“抗震救灾 众志成城”不间断直播节目开始的那一刻起，与大众一起度过了不眠不休数个日日夜夜的央视主持白岩松，近日在出席活动时，表达了自己鲜明的看法和观点。对于 那位在前线报道中“逃跑”的央视同行，白岩松呼吁大家能够宽容对待，而对于一向以理智为准则的新闻节目主持人在直播间潸然泪下，白岩松则性情的以一句“他 是我的老弟”表明自己的看法。

　　“地震报道让媒体进一步成长”

　　尽管此次央视的不间断直播给大众带来了巨大的震撼，也获得了大众的认可，但是面对其中出现的纰漏，面对严格的大众，白岩松也直言不讳的道出了存在的缺憾和需要更进一步的媒体。

白岩松出席活动直言不讳地提出了问题

　　“在这个大的灾难当中，媒体也是在学会怎么样更好的去面对受伤的人，面对哪些失去家人的孩子。头几天的时候我们可能还没有意识到这样的问题，但 是后来我们就意识到，什么样的问题我不好问，什么样的问题我不该问，媒体本身就需要成长。另外我觉得这本来就是一个双刃剑，媒体在这次事件中发挥着很大的 作用，恰恰也是爱如潮水的一个很重要的动力，所以我觉得这是中国媒体的一次进步，虽然这节目中我们还有无数的需要去改进的地方，不进步怎么去改正呢？就像 中国的改革一样，改革中的问题一定要通过改革去解决，中国媒体进步中出现的问题，一定要通过更大的进步去解决！”

　　“请给我的同行宽容”

　　无论是面对玩忽职守的前线记者同行，还是面对那些未经斟酌的问题，作为媒体人的白岩松似乎更能感觉到在这次史无前例的央视直播报道中，对主持人和记者是一个怎样的检验和考核。

白岩松：给我的同行一点宽容吧

　　“这一次的直播报道是我们从来没有经历过的，我说不是以前做没做过的问题，而是新闻原本就该是这样，所以我认为新闻回到了原本应该承担的责任和 位置上。像我很多的同行，既有成熟的，像张泉灵、李小萌都做的非常好，也有不太成熟的，会有一些失误、错误，甚至让大家觉得非常非常极端的去批评的等等， 但是当我们很舒适的坐在家里骂她的时候，她很艰难的正在承受被骂，如果我们可以宽容一点，给一个二十多岁的年轻人成长的机会，下一次她不再犯这样的错误 了，不是更好。一个国家在一场大灾难面前不仅要学会爱，还要学会宽容。要 给别人这样机会，这个同行我不认识，我的一些被责难的同行其实我都并不认识，过去中央台分到如此大规模的直播做的不多，因此提供他们锻炼的机会也不多，我 们为什么不能给他们这样的机会？四十多天了，直到昨天晚上我还在持续的直播，一直到现在，持续的直播中，总会有上嘴唇碰错了下嘴唇，总会有在表达某些情感 的时候不准确，总会有这样的错，或是那样的错，但是我觉得要记住这样的两句话：如果第二次他还在这个地方摔倒，请你用更大的板砖拍他，请给他第二次机会； 出过车祸的司机更懂得安全驾驶。”

　　“赵普是我的小老弟”

　　在这次央视的“抗震救灾”不间断直播节目中，主持人赵普在直播中潸然泪下的眼泪打动了无数的观众，不过在感染观众的同时，也有声音表示在这样一个以理性为准则的新闻类节目中，主持人不应该“情不自禁”，这样有违一个新闻节目主持人的专业性。

白岩松若有所思

　　当把这个问题抛给白岩松的时候，镜头前的他变得激动起来，迫不及待的要为赵普说上几句“流泪的是感情，没有流出的泪水同样是感情，同样值得大家 尊重！每一个人对自己职业表达的方法是不一样的，在那一个时刻，你已经很难去想自己是一个新闻人，那一时刻你是一个中国人。在头一个礼拜的时候，那经常是 一个不由自主的感觉，但是流出的是泪水，没有流出的也是泪水，流出泪水表达的是悲伤，没有流出的泪水表达的也是悲伤，都是一样！

　　我作为一个新闻的主持人，我永远相信的是，你要用你的感情去表达理性，全世界的新闻必须理性。但是这个理性的背后，是为了更好的从人性的角度去 面对新闻，去面对很多的事情。没有理性约束的感性是危险的，今天他的流泪大家会觉得很好，但是明天如果以另外的方式去呈现出来，大家会接受吗？所以一个最 好的社会一定是用理性来约束感性，这样最可爱了，我觉得人也是这样！但是在这次大地震当中不能去说，我同事的流泪，我也会去拍拍他的肩膀，和别人说‘那是 我的老弟’。”  

(责任编辑：杨昊)

我想我应该感谢开明的领导人，让真正的声音发出来，而不是为了那一点点经济援助，各省挣得不可开交，说那是一点点，也得分对谁，拿出来的那些钱他们都感觉不好意思，国会很快通过，但却附加了诸如，必须要使用经济援助购买日本货，没什么，因为他们知道，给你们点钱，让你们内耗去吧。日本有中国通，他们在很多方面比我们更了解中国人，了解的上一个层次。制定了很多高效的措施，让日本在很多方面超前于中国。

为了证明这个，我就问你一个简单的问题，如果你是北方人，你了解南方人吗？如果你是南方人，你了解北方人吗？了解多少，你在你出生地外面的城市，呆了多长时间，即使呆了很长时间，你写下了什么来总结你的所见所闻呢？

以上这些，日本人300年前就开始替我们做了，然后你已经知道发生了什么。

写这个的背景是，日本将提出议案，不再提供长期对华经济援助，国内媒体有很多争论，我也写一点吧。2008.6.25 SUN

To be better

-- Icebreaker

Hao WANG

  The title of my speech is “to be better” for the first project, icebreaker.

  Perhaps you might raise this question, “to be better on what?”, at your first glance on the title. Please look at a picture of mine. There is one question for you. Here you go.

  Here I'm going to share with you some personal experiences first. Let me introduce you a kid and tell his stories to explain for you why I use this title.

  Long long ago, about dozens of years ago, when a kid was trying to learn how to ride bicycle, but he felt scared and nervous when he was riding, especially someone went past him on the road. One day, the timid boy told the worries to his father. Father thought it over, told him patiently, “my little kid, you always have your own spaces on your platform which just belong to you, no matter you are riding or doing anything else.” The words really gave the boy confidence to make him able to ride bicycle well. Besides that, he found he can do things better than expected. Even till now, when the kid feels frustrated, he always recalls the scenario when father said the words to him. He knows, all in all, father wanna let the kid know that in order to face changes, sometimes challenges, we should look into the bright side more, not just the impact which the challenges bring to you, that means thinking in a better way.

  Toastmasters, to associate with the story, if nation can not give you a platform, is it easy for us to sit here? For capable individuals, it is more possible to build the platform of his own than normal person like me. I am going to tell this to you with thankful feelings, China is a big platform with consistent growth, are you ready? Are you on the express way or on the way for bike, even for cow? If I make progress slowly, what is the root cause?

  To answer this question, I'll tell you another story about the same kid.

  Some day, the kid found some pills on the table. He has already got used to eat pills those days since he just recovered from a heavy cold. He was hesitating to make decision whether or not to take the pills. At the moment, one figure came to his mind, he was speaking with a mean smile on his face, he was black from head to feet, may be naked if remembering correctly, and holding a big fork. At that time, the little boy didn't know the looks of devils can be so creative. It really takes time to accommodate. The devil said, take them, you'll be stronger. Almost at the same time, another figure came up. He or she, for sex can not be distinguished, with white wings on the back, talked to the kid, you mustn't take the pill without your mother's permission. The argue lasts a while. Actions will always be taken by somebody. The kid chose to follow the words which devil said according to first-come-first-serve policy. The pills disappeared in the end, but the story just starts right from this point.

  To tell the truth, the kid didn't hear of anything about the story “Washington and the Cherry Tree”, but he is really an honest boy. He told his mother what he did a moment ago after mother was back. He found the atmosphere dramatically changed, the behavior of his mother changed a lot, when his mother knew what happened here, seems in a very short time, his mother has been absolutely one of “desperate housewives”. The kid didn't realize why it happened so fast. He asked, “What on earth is going on here?”Mother told him with anger, “my child, you know, unfortunately, you ate pills wrongly.” “Ah? Then what will happen on me?”kid asked nervously. Mother said with wired smile, “The only thing you can do is to lay down and wait to die.” “Gosh! What bad things I did? I just ate some pills, not ate the devil. Die? What is die? Is he or she one friend of yours?” The kid thought to himself. “Never mind, let me just lay down to wait for it.”Innocent people do innocent things. Prior to laying down he didn't forget to get a pillow to make himself comfortable. He peacefully waited things happen. “What are you doing?”Mother asked curiously. “I'm waiting for die.”Suddenly mother laughed. “Hahaha, my little kid, it is not real, you are not going to die, I just made joke.” “What? Joke?” “Next time, don't eat any pill if I didn't allow to do. OK?” Sure! You bet! The picture still stays somewhere in mind till now. The kid understood, to him, mother is the angel to protect him from danger all the time. You know why this funny thing happen to the kid? Right, he only knew to take medicine, not to know why he need to eat them, how to eat them? We call it innocence for kid, to adult, it is unwisdom. In order to avoid innocence or unwisdom things happen, we must keep learning. Don't stop thinking, not only for us, but even for a nation or a nationality. Don't you remember blind faith things happened before? Can you imagine how harmful it is to prevent the development of society? Learn as much as you can, till as old as possible in your life, to act in a better way.

  We have got “think in a better way, act in a better way”, then they are for what? Here comes the last point, it is to live in a better way.

  The kid also keeps the picture in mind when his father brought the first television home in 1980s, at the moment he was 3 years old. The TV costed 500 RMB and waited a long time for distribution by government. It is a big amount of money during the course of time for a worker family. Can you imagine that our nation can be so lack of resources and money in that planned economy times? The world is always running in the way which people can not accept at once, and for individual everyone is always affected by our parents, friends, and surrounders. Now, right in this room, you have seen a person dressed in modern style in front of the room. But I still think I am living in 80s last century. I miss the blue sky, fresh air, broad roads, attractive team games, solid relationship, people is more easy to feel happy. Let's think about it, which kind of game do you like most in your childhood? Do you feel the breath of freedom on broad roads and in fresh air? Are you always feeling inspired in the Chinese relationship? Living better does not mean living in high quality condition, on the contrary, living in illusion doesn't mean living worse. We live in reality but we have dreams. We follow our heart, pursuit our dreams, because people have spirit world. Making money is not the only thing in your life, we need work and life balance to live in a better way.

  A question for you? Have you got the 3 points I mentioned here? Yes, they are “think in a better way, act in a better way, live in a better way”.

  The kid I have mentioned is the person standing here, he would like to be that kind of persons who follow the pace of truth, break through the darkness, and give back the essence of things.

  Thanks for all of you guys, every toastmasters and guests, because you give me chance, you make me better.

--Adjust some formation of the article 2009.1.7 SUN